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Dan's avatar
Feb 12Edited

As a lawyer, I should acknowledge my bias against my own obsolescence. That said, I find some of the more extreme predictions premature at best, and more likely fanciful, at least for the foreseeable future.

As you quite rightly point out, every previous advance in technology has created more legal work, not less. For every gain in efficiency, client and regulatory expectations rise accordingly, and the net is neutral or even costlier than the prior situation. But there’s more to it than that.

A lot of what contemporary AI tools can do well are tasks that were already largely automated. Document review tools have used intelligent algorithms to cull results for more than a decade. Generating contracts sounds impressive, but template contracts that only require the lawyer to add specifics and tweak key provisions have existed since before even the advent of personal computers. An AI-generated contract that requires only minor revisions is at best an incremental improvement.

None of this is to say AI doesn’t have many applications for lawyers - it obviously does - or that it won’t eliminate some categories of legal work. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see things like the drafting of wills or non-contested divorces be entirely automated in the next 5 years. But that is already commoditized work that is largely driven by existing technology. At the end of the day, the value provided by a $2300/hour law firm partner comes from doing things that are almost entirely judgmental and relationship-driven, based upon their years of experience. It is hard for me to envision even a much more sophisticated AI than what we presently have being able to replicate that. (To that point, I would add that I have used all the leading AI legal tools, and while they have their applications, they all currently suffer from flaws that make them reliable only for simple and preliminary tasks.)

Finally, I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that the bar is insular and protectionist. If we start to

see *any* technology force large numbers of lawyers out of work, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the adoption of new rules that create significant disincentives to relying on it. For example, a rule could be adopted that the attorney client privilege is waived just by virtue of using an AI assistant to process confidential information (frankly, there is a decent argument for this reading under even existing rules).

AI, like word processors (which eliminated a great deal of legal secretarial work), the internet (which turbocharged legal research), and big data tools (which made massive document reviews possible), will have a significant impact on the legal profession. My guess, however, is that the impact will be evolutionary, rather than revolutionary.

David Schatsky's avatar

AI is already making some legal services cheaper for some consumers. A friend reports that he needed to consult with attorneys on two separate occasions pertaining to similar types of matters. The first time, he burned a fair number of legal hours discussing his situation with the attorney before he was about to obtain actionable outputs. The second time, he discussed his situation with an AI Chatbot and had it prepare a legal document. Then he had an attorney review the document. The attorney confirmed it was fine and the review took a fraction of the time (and cost a fraction of the fees) than it would have as a full consultation.

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