Why AI hasn’t replaced software engineers, and won’t

Coding agents as normal technology

Jun 11 • Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor

389

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May 2026

Did Google’s AI agents really build an operating system for $916?

The importance of independent evaluation

May 22 • Sayash Kapoor and Arvind Narayanan

137

22

9

Do AI Risks Require Extraordinary Government Intervention?

Let’s not skip the hard work of AI governance

May 21 • Sayash Kapoor and Arvind Narayanan

73

8

16

April 2026

Open-world evaluations for measuring frontier AI capabilities

Introducing CRUX, a new project for evaluating AI on long, messy tasks

Apr 16 • Sayash Kapoor and Arvind Narayanan

85

7

13

February 2026

New Paper: Towards a science of AI agent reliability

Quantifying the capability-reliability gap

Feb 24 • Sayash Kapoor and Arvind Narayanan

320

33

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AI Won’t Automatically Make Legal Services Cheaper

Applying the AI as Normal Technology framework to legal services

Feb 12 • Justin Curl, Sayash Kapoor, and Arvind Narayanan

74

13

14

January 2026

Fact checking Moravec's paradox

This famous aphorism is neither true nor useful

Jan 29 • Arvind Narayanan

170

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September 2025

A guide to understanding AI as normal technology

And a big change for this newsletter

Sep 9, 2025 • Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor

201

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July 2025

Could AI slow science?

Confronting the production-progress paradox

Jul 16, 2025 • Sayash Kapoor and Arvind Narayanan

305

37

66

May 2025

AGI is not a milestone

There is no capability threshold that will lead to sudden impacts

May 1, 2025 • Sayash Kapoor and Arvind Narayanan

190

38

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April 2025

AI as Normal Technology

A new paper that we will expand into our next book

Apr 15, 2025 • Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor

587

38

122

December 2024

Is AI progress slowing down?

Making sense of recent technology trends and claims

Dec 18, 2024 • Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor

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